Saturday, June 25, 2016

Remember the Good Old Days? No, no you don't


Remember the good old days? No, no you don’t.

or

Simple dangerous ideas

Dear Hank,
I have to say this world is a pretty sad place at times, and this is one of those times. For every situation there seems to be a simplistic saying to cover it, both for and against. It seems we humans want to believe that there is someone else in charge who will fix things if we screw up. Every once in awhile we have to face the reality that it might not be the case and we’ll have to do it ourselves, but that rarely happens. This can be summed up in two sayings:
      We faced the enemy and it is us. (Pogo)
      Having faced the situation we moved on. (Anon, or I forget whom to credit.)

I am in the midst of a course called “Deep History.” The professor is looking at the universe from when it began and keeps asking the question, “What is your evidence?” He then goes on to provide that evidence and the thoughts behind it.

It seems people are craving simple answers. I understand that desire but I have to keep asking what is the evidence that the suggested panacea is working? 

The exit of Britain from the European Union is a case in point.
It seems those who wanted to leave felt helpless and wanted to be more on their own.
That’s fine if they are willing to accept a lower standard of living, which it now seems, less than a day later they are not.
However, that is the bed they have created so they will have to lie in it for a decade or more before it will change. For the rest of us it’s a problem of not getting sucked in to their problem (or should I call it stupidity?)
Yes, the EU has problems. Yes, it was flawed from the start. Maybe, there was a better way of structuring it, but that was the best that could be done at the time.
With Britain in the EU, the EU was the third largest economy in the world. It still is.
Britain was the fifth largest economy. Overnight, the drop in value of the British economy took it from number five to number six. Whatever benefit the charlatans that foisted this idea on the people of Britain was gone in the first twenty four hours. 
The bigger problem requires one to look at history for the last two centuries.
Let’s start with Napoleon. He was French and took over as dictator, excuse me emperor, after The French Revolution. He conquered most of Europe. He got defeated and exiled. He came back and was a much different fellow than that first time. He wanted peace. The Prussians (now Germans) wanted none of that. Bismarck the leader of a fragmented Germany used the excuse to fight Napoleon to finish unifying Germany. Napoleon met his Waterloo and was exiled to an island off the coast of Africa. 
But dreams die hard. Napoleon III and the French Republic of the 1860s had grand ambitions. He put a cousin up in Mexico to distract the people from his dictatorial rule. He suffered under the illusion that his army was a match for the Prussian war machine and decided to fight them. It was a disaster for France. Paris was occupied by the Prussians for close to a decade. Not satisfied, the French aided by the British and a series of interlocking treaties went to war again in the beginning of the twentieth century. The belief was that in a few months they were going to spank the Huns, as they derogatorily called the Germans - didn’t work out that way, four years, 70 million people later they stopped. Germany lost and was told to pay an absurd amount, which they couldn’t do. They got pissed off; ignored the payments, built up an army on the rise of a strong man who not only said he’d fi things but he’d make Germany really really great. Once again Britain went to war, this time on the side of the French against Germany and 100 million people later they stopped.
At that point the head of the British government, Winston Churchill, made a speech where he said that he feared they would go to war again unless all of Europe became bound together. It took years but eventually the European Union came into fruition.
Now, overnight the Brits have thrown that out. We once again risk the specter of greater conflict in Europe. I know, it can never happen again. That’s what they said in 1815, 1871, 1914, 1945, and that’s only the last two centuries.
It can happen; and I hate to say it will, but you know what they say, “those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
Next topic: Stoopid Economic Ideas
With resignation,
Your friend,

Hank