The Belmont

Hank,

Time to talk about The Belmont, at least on the winter book. As you know I’m quite the authority on horse racing having picked the winner in both this year’s Kentucky Derby and The Preakness that is until the last 100 yards or less when Bodemeister, my pick, got beat by I’ll Have Another. So I can claim being 99% right because the Bod led both races, except for the end.

Now you might wonder what the winter book is and how I know about it. The winter book is placing a bet on a horse in the winter based on its odds of it winning a race in the spring. The odds stay the same if you bought on the winter book regardless of what happened in the interim. So if you bet on She’s a Nag at 50-1 and by the time the race came around her odds were 2-1 it didn’t matter you got 50-1. How do I know about the winter book? That’s easy The Roaring Twenties. The Roaring Twenties was a T.V. show that I sometimes got to watch as a kid. It was on the cusp of my bedtime. I remember this episode where a mobster placed a bet on a horse on the winter book. The rest of the show was about people trying to kill the horse - I think that was it - but that’s how I know about the winter book. See, I’m a real pro when it comes to this stuff. So let me tell you about the Belmont.

The Belmont is the longest race in the triple crown of horse racing. Many horses can win the first two races: The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness, but The Belmont is a different beast. A fast sprinter will not last; the horse that wins needs stamina to be able to go the distance. Only great horses can win all three and the greatest horse to do that was Secretariat. The Belmont that Secretariat ran has to go down as one of the greatest of moments in sports history. Put it up their with the U.S. hockey team’s win over the Soviet Union in 1982, with Babe Ruth’s called home run in the World Series. When Secretariat was coming down the home stretch the jockey could look across the track at the other horses. 31 1/2 lengths was the recorded length he won by but it was so much bigger than that. The only other horse that comes close in the annals of horse racing is Seabiscuit. 

So let me give you my winter book on the Belmont (okay it’s three weeks away but that’s an eternity.) First off, I know whose not going to win: Bodemeister or I’ll Have Another. I don’t think either horse has the stamina. I’ll Have Another might do it but I doubt it. Bodemeister definitely won’t do it. Bob Baffert isn’t going to race him.

Here are the horses that have a chance: I’ll Have Another, Dullahan, Went the Day Well, Creative Clause, Gemologist.

Horses that aren’t really in contention are: Union Rags, Hansen, Alpha (although he could finish in the money), Take Charge Indy, Daddy Long Legs, Rousing Sermon, Trinniberg, Liason.

Teeth of the Dog is a horse I like because of it’s name. It came in the middle of the pack at the Preakness. If it wins The Belmont I’ll crow that you heard it here first.

That is all.

Carry on,

Bryce